In China, the amount of conventional energy resources is only 60% of the world average level. In order to meet the growing energy demand, it is necessary to accelerate the development and utilization of new energy. At present, the 9% share of new energy in the energy structure is relatively low compared with the developed countries in the world, and there is still a lot of room for development.
Although the latest statistics of 2008 have not been released yet, the proportion of China’s new energy production in the overall energy structure will exceed 9% based on the data from various aspects, especially the growth rate of China’s new energy production and consumption in the past 10 years.
2008 is an extraordinary year for China’s energy work. Affected by the changes of the world macro-economic situation and natural disasters, the supply and demand of energy has experienced a roller coaster like operation from “tight supply” at the beginning of the year to “demand slowing down” at the end of the year. Authoritative experts pointed out that the easing of the tense situation of energy supply and demand does not mean that China’s energy demand has dropped significantly, nor does it mean that China’s energy supply can achieve absolute self-sufficiency. Therefore, the task of developing new energy is still urgent. Compared with the level of developed countries, 9% of new energy in China is still at a relatively low level.
In 2007, China produced 2.35 billion tons of standard coal, of which coal accounted for 76.6%, oil accounted for 11.3%, natural gas accounted for 3.9%, and other unconventional energy accounted for 8.2%; while the total energy consumption in this year was 2.66 billion tons of standard coal, including 69.5% of coal, 19.7% of oil, 3.5% of natural gas and 7.3% of unconventional energy. In terms of total amount, there is still a gap in energy consumption in China. From the structural analysis, in China’s energy structure, the dominant position of coal has not changed. Although the development speed of new energy is fast, its proportion is still too small.
China has a long way to go in developing new energy, whether in terms of structure or total demand. First of all, the development of new energy is an effective guarantee to maintain rapid economic growth. From 2003 to 2008, the average annual growth rate of China’s GDP is close to 10%. In order to maintain the stable and sustainable development of economy, we must have strong energy guarantee. Throughout China’s resource reserves, the total amount is large and the per capita share is small, so it is difficult to form a sustainable support only relying on traditional energy.
Secondly, the development of new energy is an effective way to alleviate environmental pressure. Compared with traditional energy, new energy has the characteristics of less pollution and high efficiency. Vigorously developing new energy will help to reduce economic losses caused by environmental damage and achieve the goals set in the eleventh five year plan.
Third, the development of new energy is an effective means to ensure the safe supply of energy. Energy security is an important part of a country’s economic security and an important barrier to ensure the independent and healthy development of a country’s economy. At present, China has to import a part of its oil every year, and its dependence on foreign countries is relatively high. To ensure the safe supply of energy, we must adhere to the diversified strategy, and vigorously developing new energy is the concrete embodiment of this strategy.
Fourth, the development of new energy is a powerful weapon to solve the dilemma of unbalanced regional development in China. There is a big gap among regions in China, which is unfavorable to the sustainable development of economy and society. The development of new energy in the vast western regions and remote rural areas not only improves people’s livelihood, but also promotes economic development.
Fifth, it is feasible to develop new energy. With the improvement of technical level, the cost of new energy development has dropped sharply, and the cost of some new energy has been close to or even lower than that of conventional energy.
The reporter interviewed the national energy administration and relevant people in the industry. The unanimous judgment is that the development trend of China’s new energy will, on the whole, maintain a sustained and rapid development momentum and have a bright future.
From the perspective of policy environment, the recently concluded energy work conference has determined the work direction with the theme of structural transformation, which indicates the arrival of a new era of new energy industry. Both the promulgation of new energy and renewable energy planning and the implementation of the new energy law in the future have brought unprecedented opportunities for the development of new energy.
From the perspective of investment, international capital is optimistic. Even in the context of the international financial crisis, investment in the field of new energy will still become the hot spot of capital pursuit. Under the influence of policy guidance, domestic capital will follow suit one after another. The continuous rise of new energy sector in A-share market is sufficient evidence.
From the perspective of the internal structure of new energy, the priority development direction in the future is still wind energy, solar energy and nuclear energy with high technology maturity and economic feasibility. Economic feasibility is an important bottleneck restricting the development of new energy, which will be solved gradually with the improvement of China’s technical level.
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